The US tariff policy has triggered a trade war, severely impacting the global shipping industry. Sectors like container shipping, car transportation, and energy exports are all affected, leading to increased shipping rates and global economic uncertainty. The goal of revitalizing the US shipbuilding industry is unlikely to be achieved in the short term. Ultimately, consumers and businesses will pay the price for trade protectionism.
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Although the trans-Pacific ocean freight container rates are on a downward trend, they remain approximately $1,000/FEU higher compared to the same period last year. The calm period after the Spring Festival has led to a price decline, and it is expected that as service models return to normal, contract rates will decrease.
Freight rates on US routes continue to decline, with the SCFI index falling for three consecutive weeks. The oversupply situation has made companies cautious about shipping, leading to concerns among industry insiders about future rate drops. Despite pressures from the global trade landscape, the market still hopes for a rebound in rates with the arrival of the traditional peak season.
Recently, the SCFI freight index from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange has continuously decreased, particularly along the West and East Coast routes of the U.S., with significant rate declines. Soft demand, coupled with the upcoming implementation of new tariff policies, presents fresh challenges and uncertainties for the market. Shipping companies are closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on import prices and the economy, anticipating large-scale shifts in the supply chain.
The international shipping market is affected by the trade war, leading to a short-term increase in freight rates. Shipping companies are adjusting routes to mitigate risks. Businesses need to closely monitor policies, diversify procurement sources, optimize supply chains, and strengthen risk management to adapt to market changes. The trade war introduces volatility and uncertainty, requiring proactive strategies for businesses involved in international trade and shipping to navigate the evolving landscape and minimize potential negative impacts on their operations and profitability.
Recent developments in China-US trade relations have led to a significant increase in shipping costs, with container freight rates from Shanghai to New York rising by 19%. A shortage of shipping capacity and the evolving trade dynamics have further exacerbated this trend, and it is expected that costs may continue to rise in the future.
Goldman Sachs predicts a "two highs, one low" scenario for the shipping industry in the coming years. Dry bulk and tanker freight rates are expected to remain high, benefiting from demand growth and capacity constraints. However, container liner freight rates face the risk of decline due to overcapacity and increased competition. The report analyzes the supply and demand dynamics and investment opportunities in each segment, providing a reference for investors. It highlights the diverging trends within the shipping sector.
The South Korean shipping industry is facing immense competitive pressure, with two major shipping companies urgently needing to procure ultra-large container ships to enhance their market competitiveness. Currently, the industry is suffering from severe overcapacity, and declining freight rates are impacting the profitability of shipping firms. Furthermore, officials do not support the merger of the two companies, emphasizing the need for voluntary principles to ensure market diversity and stability.
In July 2024, China's export container transportation market showed stable improvement with an overall increase in freight rates, as the freight index for major routes generally rose. Despite ongoing challenges affecting the European and North American markets, port throughput has been trending upwards, and the ship leasing market remains active, demonstrating the resilience and potential of the container shipping market.
